Social applications are the gems of the Web2 era, but what will social applications look like in the Web3 era, and what they might be like, is still unknown, especially since the current infrastructure is not yet perfect. Based on this condition, I have envisioned a Web3 social application that can be implemented at present, a social prediction application. Let me explain how this application works.
In the Web2 era, the cost of publishing content on social media is too low. Many people make predictions without much thought, easily make commitments, and share without deep consideration or fact-checking. Therefore, in this Web3 social prediction application, every message posted must be based on a specific event and make a clear prediction, with a corresponding bet. When users share the message, they also need to make their own judgment and place a bet.
The gameplay of this prediction is somewhat similar to metaculus.com. The hottest prediction on Metaculus currently is "Russian invasion of Ukraine before 2023," as shown in the image below. Users can vote for a probability based on their own predictions.
However, the prediction projects on Metaculus are too specialized and geared towards professional researchers, and there are not enough projects. Predictions on social networks do not need to be so serious and can simplify probabilities to support or deny.
For example, on Weibo in 2018, I made a bet with Yunshu that smart contracts would be widely used within three years, otherwise, I would eat dirt on a live stream. In 2021, I believed that smart contracts were already widely used in the DeFi era, but Yunshu disagreed, and we couldn't agree on the definition of "widely used."
However, if there was an application like this at the time, when making this prediction, I would need to place a bet, which would make me think more deeply about the definition of "widely used" and the quantifiable indicators, making the prediction more rigorous.
Of course, to avoid disputes in the end, when publishing information, it is necessary to @ several users with good credibility or delegate to a DAO for arbitration. When the predicted event occurs or the indicator is reached, the arbitrator enters the result for settlement. The losing party loses all the bet assets, which are rewarded to the party with the correct prediction. The other party receives rewards proportionally to their bet assets. Of course, to encourage users to publish predictions, the rewards for publishers can be weighted higher.
This application can be used to set personal commitments, such as betting a year's worth of cigarette money and setting a flag to quit smoking, with a few friends acting as supervisors.
It can also be used to conduct opinion surveys on controversial events, such as whether Elon Musk can repay his debts within N years. Similar ideas have been proposed before.
It can also increase the credibility of one's own investment recommendations. For example, predicting that BTC will reach $100,000 by the end of the year. Making predictions with money is much more reliable than just typing on a keyboard. This is more suitable for users in the cryptocurrency industry.
After multiple rounds of training like this, users' speech on social networks will likely become more humble and rigorous. These prediction results are more valuable than purely opinion analysis and can also serve as a risk hedging tool.
Technically, this is relatively simple. Since there is a betting cost and the information is not too extensive, writing directly on the blockchain is not a big issue. It would be best if the identity system can map the identity system on Web2, so that users can continue to accumulate their reputation from Web2. If someone is willing to do it, I can provide technical support and investment.
Before this application is released, everyone can share their most desired predictions and how much they are willing to bet on them.
This article serves as an introduction, and I will delve into a series of thoughts on Web3 in the future.